Russia and Eastern Europe Report - July 2025- Part One

Welcome to the TEMP Geopolitics Report 2025, a publication of the Europinion Institute for Research.

This report analyzes the intensifying conflict dynamics in Eastern Europe and Eurasia as of mid-2025, with a particular focus on the evolving Russia-Ukraine war and its wider regional repercussions. It examines Russia’s expansion of industrial-scale drone production, its alleged deployment of chemical agents via drones, and one of the largest aerial assaults of the war to date, targeting Ukrainian logistics hubs with hypersonic and cruise missiles. Beyond the battlefield, it assesses internal developments such as the suicide of Russia’s Transport Minister and a widening purge of regime-aligned elites. It also explores heightened U.S. and European military support for Ukraine amid leadership changes in Kyiv and growing transatlantic debate over the sustainability of aid. Additional sections examine regional destabilization risks, including Estonia’s move to host NATO nuclear assets, Laos’s alignment with Russia, and Armenia’s deepening rift with Moscow as it reorients toward NATO and the West.

Together, these developments reflect the increasingly complex, multi-theatre, and hybrid nature of contemporary warfare—where drones, disinformation, chemical agents, and state collapse converge in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

Author: Patrick Rene Haasler

Editor: Harine Raaj, Elmira Amiraslanova and Dragos Brotac