Geopolitics Report - April 2025

The April 2025 edition of the Europinion Institute for Research’s Geopolitics Report provides comprehensive, real-time analysis of global political developments across four major regions: Eastern Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Africa. This report in the ongoing series offers forward-looking insights into the evolving Russia–Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, the future of American space exploration under Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the changing dynamics of US–Europe relations, the reconstruction of post-revolution Syria, and the geopolitics of climate leadership and regional conflict in Africa.

This issue is authored by Patrick René Haasler, Haroon Ali, and Alice Locatelli, with editorial oversight provided by Elmira Amiraslanova, Dragoș Leonida Brotac, and Harine Raaj. The report reflects Europinion’s commitment to rigorous, non-partisan geopolitical research, blending open-source intelligence with policy forecasting and regional expertise.

Patrick René Haasler leads the report’s section on Russia and Eastern Europe, analysing the fragile foundations of the recent ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, including the strategic targeting of energy infrastructure and shifting frontlines in Sumy, Belgorod, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.

Alice Locatelli covers North America, assessing the implications of Trump’s critical minerals executive order and the political fallout of drastic NASA budget cuts, as well as Africa, where she explores Kenya’s green energy diplomacy, the fragile détente between Rwanda and the DRC, and escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Red Sea access.

Haroon Ali contributes two key chapters: one on Europe, where he evaluates the significance of the US-brokered Black Sea Deal and growing American scepticism toward NATO allies; and another on the Middle East, where he unpacks Syria’s post-Assad transition, the temporary Islamist constitution, and the complex diplomacy involving France, the US, and Israel.

This April 2025 issue underscores the intersecting pressures of security, energy, climate, and diplomacy shaping the post-pandemic, post-unipolar world. Readers will find detailed timelines, satellite visuals, and open-source intelligence integrated into each section, along with a full bibliography and sitography for reference and citation.

The report is publicly available under the Europinion Institute for Research’s open-access initiative. Image sources are credited to their original creators and remain under their respective licences, including Creative Commons.

Authors: Patrick René Haasler, Haroon Ali, and Alice Locatelli

Editors: Elmira Amiraslanova, Dragoș Leonida Brotac, and Harine Raaj

Publication Date: 4 April 2025